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"The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
—John Kenneth Galbraith
"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable."
—Robert Arnott
"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
—Niels Bohr
"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing."
—Philip Fisher
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For decades, people have tried to predict the market. Analysts on CNBC, Wall Street's so-called "smartest minds," even the guy in your group chat who swears he called the last crash. They want you to believe they can see the future.
They can't.
Nobody can.
Every major financial event, the 2008 crash, the 2020 pandemic selloff, the GameStop short squeeze, they all caught most off guard. Why?
Markets don't follow a script. They're chaotic, irrational, and ruthless.
Markets are too complex: Millions of variables. Too much noise.
Markets adapt: If something works too well, it stops working.
We lie to ourselves: Hindsight makes past trends look obvious, but in real-time? It's a mess.
Emotions ruin everything: Fear, greed, and overconfidence make people do the exact wrong thing at the worst time.
If predicting the market was possible, every hedge fund would be making unlimited money. But most can't even beat the S&P 500.
That's why trend following works. It doesn't try to outsmart the market. It doesn't pretend to know what's next. It just follows the one thing that never lies: price.
If it's going up, get on.
If it's going down, get out.
If nothing's happening, sit tight.
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